Does America see Red? Well, that’s the main question that would surface in the next American Presidential elections. With the elections just under a year away, speculations are rife about, who would be the next US President in the forthcoming elections. No guesses as yet. With the careers of big wigs like Hillary Clinton and Barrack Obama on the stake, it is anybody’s guess. How difficult it is to predict US Elections can be gauged from the 2000 elections. Although it was a tight presidential race, most news channels were found to flash the images of Democrat Al Gore projecting him as the winner. And even though Al Gore managed to get popular votes, George Bush won the controversial presidential election through the electoral votes. The result of the outcome can be seen from the eight years of his “autocratic” and “dictatorial” rule.
Miscellaneous:
From the last 14 years, it is observed that the presidential candidates are coming from Republican and Democrat side, on an alternate basis. Each of the presidents, Bill Clinton from Democrat and George Bush from the Republican side have won two elections each and have held the post for 8 years. President George Bush term would end in 2008. Considering these trends, there are high possibilities of a Democrat becoming a president in the next elections. Year 2008, presidential elections would have Hillary Clinton and Barrack Obama in the forefront from the Democrat side. With the Republicans already losing the Senate and the House of Representatives, there could not be another setback with the Democrats retaining the While House. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Inference:
US Election predictions harness the crowd’s wisdom. As compared to prediction of a single person, the predictions of large number of people with plenty of money at stake on bets provide a more likely and correct result, than the best political election observer. It is observed that the Iowa Electronic Market is more proficient at forecasting US presidential predictions than the pre-election results. When a single prediction market gives more accurate predictions than most pre election observers and statisticians, it just becomes a matter of imagination that all the US prediction markets coming together would show an accurate and more correct picture.
