PREDICTIONS IN PRESIDENTIAL RACE ELECTIONS

Early Methods of Presidential Predictions:

Nothing is more difficult for political analysts than predicting the outcomes of presidential race elections. Vast books have been published with regards predictions of presidential race elections. But, the basic thing that correctly predicts as to who wins and who loses is not addressed or researched by authors. However, few scholars have developed some methods and procedures, as a way to predict the outcomes of presidential race elections. These models were heavily dependent on the last popular ratings. Some scholars in 1983 had come up with another model based upon the bivariate method. The trends in the real per-capita disposable income were used, for predicting the outcomes and by considering the last presidential election to be a reference. In the year 1984, Lewis Beck and Rice came up with a method of prediction in which both economic conditions and presidential popularity were considered. This was found to provide more accurate results than the previous two methods. 

Miscellaneous:

The basic methods deployed by scholars in the early 80’s have underwent substantial changes and at present, many other parameters are considered. These help in providing more accurate results than the previous methods. A simple method involved behind predictions is to gauge the satisfaction of the people, with regards the incumbent president. Another parameter to be considered is the personality of the president and the effectiveness of the administration in effective discharge of their duties. The main idea involved behind predictions is to check, whether voters want to continue the policies of the incumbent candidate. If not, then the other candidate is looked into. This candidate may be of the same party as the incumbent, or of the opposition party. 

Inference: